Rand could be headed higher if policy reforms stick

Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago

The rand has further room to strengthen if government pushes ahead with reforms and prudent policies, said South African Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago.

The currency has been a top emerging markets performer, strengthening some 2.5% against the US dollar since the start of the year while most of the rand’s peers have suffered losses against the greenback.

“There should be positive momentum and that positive momentum is not going to be something just driven by the markets,” Kganyago said in an interview on Thursday on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Washington.

Where there is absolutely no disagreement on is that the target must be lower. But how far lower?

“It’s going to be whether government continues to act with resolve and stays the path in terms of prudent policies and structural reforms going forward,” he said, adding that momentum for reforms would not just bolster the currency but could also support the country’s bonds and stocks.

National treasury has announced a number of reforms in the energy, freight, water and telecommunications sectors, and has pledged to reduce spending and raise revenue as well as take further steps to lower borrowing over the medium term.

The rand has enjoyed broad gains since the ANC was forced to forge alliances with other political parties after failing to win a parliamentary majority in the May election — its first such defeat since the 1994 election. “If you restore investor or consumer confidence, it’s like a free stimulus for you,” he said.

Target

Asked about efforts by South African policymakers to lower the inflation target from the current 3-6% range, Kganyago said work was under way between national treasury and the central bank on arriving at the target, and he was hopeful the process would be concluded next year.

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“Where there is absolutely no disagreement on is that the target must be lower. But how far lower?” he said, adding that the out-of-line target meant the country was losing competitiveness. — Karin Strohecker, (c) 2024 Reuters