By 
Dateline: February 12 2030
Despite waning support for climate action in the face of rising carbon emissions, Britain’s Labour government has stuck to its guns. It’s the only major economy still targeting a zero carbon energy sector, despite the crippling costs involved.
As the world breached the 1.5°C increase target in 2025, possibly fuelled by the Hunga-Tonga volcanic eruption, many governments followed the US example and abandoned the Paris Agreement. Besides the fact that the target wasn’t achievable, a hard dose of realpolitik was forcing leaders to put economic growth ahead of pseudoscientific ideology.
But not the UK. Even as the EU sought to relax environmental, social and governance regulations in the face of economic decline, Britain wouldn’t back down. Having successfully removed coal from the national grid, the Labour government doubled down on net zero ambitions, with a £200bn plan. All while promising growth through infrastructure expansion, like at Heathrow airport.
Key to reducing emissions while still relying on natural gas was the idea of carbon capture and storage. You can burn natural gas to generate “clean” electricity if you trap the CO2 and store it underground, or repurpose it to make things such as sustainable aviation fuel. The technology works and is proven, but scaling it up is extremely expensive.
Now Britain is the shining star in the net zero firmament, refusing to join the countless backsliders that have watered down their decarbonisation policies, or simply left them to become defunct, words on paper alone. The UK’s not for turning.
But Britain is counting the cost. It has, by far, the highest electricity prices in the region, and fiscal stimulus has pushed taxes and national debt to new heights. As the next election approaches will Britons vote to keep their hero status, or finally turn their backs on net zero?
• First published on Mindbullets February 13 2025.
Climate costs sink EU economy
Europe’s big bet on cutting carbon backfires
Dateline: December 7 2035
Henri, walking down Paris’s Champs-Elysees, noticed a quieter ambience than usual, a stark contrast to the once-vibrant Parisian streets. Yet another “To Let” sign, hanging in a neighbourhood bistro window. This observation reflects a broader trend across Europe, where economies are grappling with an impending economic collapse.
Countries such as France, Greece and Germany are facing recessions, increasing debts and widespread unemployment. A key factor in this downturn is the EU’s heavy investment in climate change policies, which, while morally commendable, have not significantly mitigated climate effects, leading to economic difficulties for member states.
The EU’s approach to climate economics initially seemed rational, with early, science-backed policies such as targeted carbon reductions proving cost-effective and helping control severe temperature increases. However, the shift towards net-zero emissions and the commitment of a staggering €400-trillion since the Paris accord 20 years ago did not align with pragmatic economic considerations. Studies show that the actual costs of these climate policies were often more than double the theoretical expenses, yielding less than 17 euro cents of economic benefit for every euro spent.
The media’s portrayal of these policies mainly highlighted their benefits, creating a skewed public perception and downplaying the substantial economic costs. This led to outsize investments in areas with questionable climate effects. Audacious plans such as carbon capture, electric vehicle subsidies and advanced agritech proved grossly inefficient — and ineffective. Critics have pointed out that the true costs of these climate controls over the past decade have made the negative economic fallout from Brexit look like a drop in a rapidly rising ocean.
Witnessing the EU’s new “climate crisis”, the global community is rapidly switching to investing in innovative new green technologies, rather than purely curtailing carbon. The EU’s attempt to outspend rather than out-innovate in clean energy has proven unsuccessful. The question now is whether EU member states can rescue their economies and still survive to fight climate change in the future. For Henri’s and the planet’s sake, we hope they can.
• First published on Mindbullets December 7 2023.
Despite appearances to the contrary, Futureworld cannot and does not predict the future. The Mindbullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures, and challenge and stimulate strategic thinking.
Comments