By 
Dateline: March 15 2037
Twelve years ago in 2025 the signs were all too obvious. Europe was fast becoming a land of monuments and museums, and facing a future of inexorable decline. Overregulated and under-resourced, the old man of the world was going downhill, rapidly.
Things came to a head when Donald Trump won a second term and decided Europe was no longer his problem, unless there were beneficial trade deals to be done. America had its own challenges, with a mountain of debt and dwindling superpower status. Trump was determined to put America first, even if that meant doing oil and gas deals with Russia, carving up Ukraine, and leaving Europe to its own devices. He had China to contend with.
Shocked at being tossed to the wolves, the EU quickly mended Brexit fences with the UK, its strongest remaining ally. Having relied on the “Brussels factor” for so long — that products had to meet EU standards and regulations — Europe faced the awful realisation that the only way to regain its own agency and remain a world power was to rearm, rebuild and reinvigorate its economies. Taking a hatchet to the mountains of red tape strangling local business and industry was the first step.
With net-zero, environmental, social & governance (ESG) requirements and diversity, equity & inclusion (DEI) out the window, Europe could open the taps to Norwegian gas and North Sea oil. Boosting defence budgets meant more work for German and British weapons manufacturers and French aerospace contractors.
Trade walls went up against China and India, and EU-wide subsidies were announced to reindustrialise the heartland. Now the regulators embraced innovative ideas such as robotics, AI, autonomous vehicles and eVTOL passenger drones — for civil and military use.
The greens and leftists howled in frustration, but they were in the minority. Woke ideology was abandoned in the face of an existential threat; the very thought that Europe could become insignificant in world affairs was too horrific to contemplate. Immigration was encouraged — but only the “right” kind of immigration. Productive young people with skills and ideas were welcomed; refugees and asylum seekers were shown the door.
It’s been a long, hard, tough road to follow, and often a bitter struggle, internally and externally. But in the end Europe can thank Trump for the shock treatment that jolted them out of a comfortable, gradual, slide into obscurity. Europe is back, and great again.
• First published in Mindbullets March 6 2025.
Germany’s workforce woes
A bleak forecast for an economic titan
Dateline: June 9 2031
In Germany, a daunting demographic time bomb is casting a long shadow over its future economic health and prosperity. This isn’t unexpected news; almost a decade ago, predictions made by a German government research institute painted a similar picture. Today, those warnings resonate all too clearly. Germany’s vibrant workforce of 45-million is shrinking and the ripples are already being felt in the global market.
Within the next decade Germany’s labour supply is projected to contract by an alarming 4-million workers, despite efforts to raise the retirement age. This sharp 9% decline echoes the dual challenges of longer lifespans and decreasing birth rates. The issue is worsened as retiring Germans leave vacancies that the younger generation cannot fill, leading to a major talent deficit.
To stabilise its workforce, Germany would need an annual influx of 400,000 immigrants. Yet, in the face of immigration policies and a tumultuous global climate, this seems like a Herculean task.
This looming labour shortage is not just Germany’s problem — it’s a spectre haunting Europe’s biggest economy and threatening the stability of the world order. With Germany’s working age population on the wane, the engine powering Europe’s largest economy could stall.
This demographic crisis underscores the critical role of a balanced population structure in maintaining economic vibrancy. Bold and innovative policy shifts, from boosting the birth rate and reimagining retirement to welcoming immigration, are needed to stem this crisis. However, there are no quick fixes and time is running out.
Germany’s predicament serves as a potent wake-up call for other ageing societies. Its success or failure in navigating this crisis could provide a road map for other nations facing similar challenges. Will Germany rely on technology, automation and robotics to boost productivity?
The outcome remains uncertain. As the world watches anxiously, Germany is on the front line, wrestling with the profound implications of a withering workforce.
• First published in Mindbullets June 8 2023.
Despite appearances to the contrary, Futureworld cannot and does not predict the future. The Mindbullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures, and challenge and stimulate strategic thinking.
Comments