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(Ecofin Agency) – In its updated global economic outlook, the IMF maintained its 2024 global growth forecast at 3.2%, while sub-Saharan Africa’s projection was revised down by 0.2 percentage points compared to April.
Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2024, down from April’s 3.8% forecast, according to the latest World Economic Outlook report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released on October 22.
This document cites slower growth in Nigeria, where economic activity was weaker than expected in H1 2024, and the devastating impact of the conflict in South Sudan, which has caused a 26% contraction in its economy.
However, the outlook for 2025 has improved, with growth now forecasted at 4.2%, up from the initial 4%.
Nigeria’s growth forecast for 2024 has been cut by 0.4 percentage points, from 3.3% to 2.9%. The West African nation faces significant structural challenges, including an over-reliance on the oil sector and high inflation.
On the other hand, South Africa’s forecast for 2024 has been revised upward, from 0.9% to 1.1%. The country has seen an improvement in its energy situation in recent months, allowing energy-intensive sectors like mining and manufacturing to perform better.
Sub-Saharan Africa still faces major obstacles that hinder its growth. Conflicts in certain regions, global inflationary pressures made worse by supply chain disruptions, and the severe effects of climate change are complicating development efforts.
Despite these challenges, the IMF remains optimistic about the region’s future. The report notes that supply chain constraints and climate shocks are expected to gradually ease, which will help boost growth.
The report notes that GDP growth in the region should rise as the negative effects of past weather shocks ease and supply constraints gradually loosen.
The IMF also emphasizes the importance of structural reforms and multilateral cooperation for sustainable growth, with a focus on green transition and debt restructuring.
Globally, the IMF maintains its growth forecast at 3.2% for both 2024 and 2025.
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