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Local research among university students showed that plain packaging with a 75% graphic warning lowered how much satisfaction smokers get from cigarettes. Non-smokers were also least likely to want to try a plain pack compared to a branded one.
“The colour of the pack makes a difference,” says Ayo-Yusuf. “South Africans look at their pack in making a brand choice, and that choice is linked to what we call the expected sensory experience [how satisfying smoking is], which leads to smoking more cigarettes a day.”
The rules on packaging and warnings won’t stop at cigarettes. They will also apply to nicotine products like e-cigarettes (or vapes) — devices that heat a liquid containing flavourings such as gummy bear or cherry peach lemon in colourful packaging that appeals to children. While they are marketed as “less harmful” than cigarettes, because they don’t burn tobacco, they are still addictive and can cause lung damage.
Plain packaging makes e-cigarettes less appealing to young people. In a 2023 survey of 2,469 adolescents (11 to 18 years old) in Great Britain, researchers found that among those who had never smoked before, 40% said they had no interest in trying e-cigarettes shown in plain green packaging — compared to 33% for branded packs.
Nevertheless, plain packaging has become one of the main targets of the tobacco industry’s pushback against the bill.
Big Tobacco strikes back
The tobacco bill has been in the making since 2018 but only got to parliament in December 2022 after years of contention.
Because South Africa’s rules on advertising tobacco are strict, Big Tobacco relies on packaging as a marketing tool. The industry claims that if every box of cigarettes has the same plain packaging, smokers won’t be able to tell legal from counterfeit cigarettes, which will promote illicit trade.
When cigarettes are produced illegally with fake trademarks or sold to customers before taxes are paid on the goods, it is seen as illicit trade. While companies have long exaggerated how big the illicit market is, a 2023 study in South African Crime Quarterly found it mostly involves legitimate local manufacturers that dodge taxes while still producing branded cigarettes.
“They’re already producing these cigarettes and not paying taxes. Even if [all the boxes look the same] it’s not going to make it any worse or less,” says Ayo-Yusuf.
The industry also argues that the bill is a missed opportunity to get people to stop smoking cigarettes, because it groups “less harmful new categories of nicotine products” with traditional cigarettes — even though studies show they aren’t harm-free. But Ayo-Yusuf says theses protests are premature; the detailed regulations that spell out exactly which warnings will apply to which products will only come later.
For example, current rules list eight warning texts that must alternate on cigarette packs, while smokeless tobacco products only carry one about oral cancer. “They are jumping ahead by claiming you can’t regulate vapes the same way as cigarettes. The regulation could say that cigarette packs must have a graphic of a sick baby, while vapes show an image of someone chained to addiction.”
In a parliamentary hearing last month, the industry doubled down during public comment on the bill, saying applying the same packaging rules on all nicotine products is too strict and should instead be tested gradually.
Once the hearings end, it will be up to the National Assembly to pass, amend or reject the bill before it finally goes to the National Council of Provinces and then the president to be signed into law.
And if it is signed, not only cigarette packs — but the tobacco industry in South Africa — could look very different.
This story was produced by the Bhekisisa Centre for Health Journalism. Sign up for the newsletter.
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