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London — Global stocks drifted on Thursday and US Treasury yields hovered near seven-month lows as traders awaited crucial US jobs data that may add to mounting concerns about a global economic slowdown.
The MSCI index of world stocks traded flat as investors avoided strong bets ahead of the Good Friday holiday when the market-moving monthly US non-farm payrolls report will be released.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 added 0.3%, boosted by data showing German industrial output rose significantly more than forecast in February. Still, recession fears weighed on US stock futures and crude oil.
Nasdaq e-mini futures pointed to a 0.5% drop at the New York open after the tech stock benchmark slumped 1% overnight. E-mini futures for the broader S&P 500 slipped 0.1% after falling 0.25% on Wednesday.
Traders are now positioning for the Federal Reserve to turn much more dovish after its most aggressive cycle of interest rate hikes in decades to battle stubbornly high inflation,
Data overnight showed US private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in March, adding to signs from earlier in the week of a loosening labour market.
The country’s services sector also slowed more than expected, while earlier figures showed a stalling at factories as well.
“What we’re seeing this week is those rate hikes having an impact on the broad economy for about the first time,” said Roger Lee, head of UK equity strategy at Investec.
“The market is extrapolating this recent data for conviction that there is going to be a US recession imminently.”
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect to see US employers added 240,000 new workers in March, down from 311,000 the previous month. Average earnings growth is also expected to have slowed to 4.3% year on year from 4.6% a month earlier.
Money markets now split on the odds of a further quarter-point hike at the May meeting versus a pause, and 74 basis points of easing are priced in by year-end.
“Investors shouldn’t rush to buy the pivot; when the Fed cuts rates it is too late to prevent a recession,” Barclays chief European equity strategist Emmanual Cau said.
Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices of the debt securities, have fallen far in recent weeks as traders added risk in bond markets instead of equities.
The yield on the 10-year note was about 3.29% on Thursday morning in London, close to the nearly seven-month low of 3.266% reached overnight.
Germany’s 10-year bund yield, a benchmark for Eurozone borrowing costs, added 2 basis points to 2.2%. That’s well below its level of about 2.7% from early March, before the failure of two US banks and Credit Suisse’s rescue by UBS sparked concerns about banks lending cautiously to safeguard capital, potentially harming growth.
The dollar index was steady against other major currencies at 101.84, bumping around a two-month low.
Spot gold slipped 0.1% from a one-year high reached on Wednesday, to $2,019 an ounce, but still more than 2% higher for the week.
Reuters
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