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(Ecofin Agency) – Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings expects increased exports of raw materials over the next 24 months to significantly reduce Côte d’Ivoire’s external and budgetary imbalances.
Côte d’Ivoire has overtaken South Africa to become the second-best-rated country in Sub-Saharan Africa for sovereign risk concerning external debt.
On May 17, Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings affirmed Côte d’Ivoire’s long-term foreign currency debt rating at “BB-,” while upgrading the outlook from “stable” to “positive.” This suggests a strong likelihood of an upgrade in the world’s top cocoa producer’s sovereign rating in the coming months.
South Africa, meanwhile, holds a “BB-” rating with a “stable” outlook from S&P Global Ratings, while Botswana remains the highest-rated country in Sub-Saharan Africa with a “BBB+” rating and stable outlook.
“The rating trajectory of Cote d’Ivoire over the past ten years has been impressive, reflecting the country’s economic turnaround over the period. Many other African sovereigns have been downgraded over that period,” said Samir Gadio, head of Africa strategy at Standard Chartered, as quoted by Bloomberg.
In January, Côte d’Ivoire ended nearly two years of Sub-Saharan Africa’s exclusion from international debt markets by issuing $2.6 billion in Eurobonds.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Côte d’Ivoire’s economy will grow by 6.5% in 2024, up from 6.2% in 2023. S&P said it expects an increase in the country’s raw material exports over the next two years, despite a recent decline in cocoa production.
“The positive outlook reflects our view that, over the next 24 months, rising commodity exports could lead to a more significant reduction in external and fiscal imbalances than in our base case,” explained Sébastien Boreux, the lead credit analyst, in a statement released by the American rating agency.
“This could be accompanied by high economic growth, benefiting from economic reforms, donor support, and monetary and political stability,” he added.
Recently, Côte d’Ivoire concluded two financing agreements totaling $4.8 billion with the IMF under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
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