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• World Bank lowers growth forecast to 3.7% for 2025 and 4.2% for 2026–27
• Downgrade reflects rising trade barriers and weakening global conditions
• Risks include debt pressures, conflicts, and geopolitical tensions
The World Bank has revised its growth projections for sub-Saharan Africa, lowering its 2025 forecast to 3.7% and projecting average growth of 4.2% for 2026–27. The update was released in the Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report published in early June.
The downward revision, 0.4 percentage points for 2025 and 0.2 points for 2026, reflects deteriorating global conditions marked by rising trade barriers, political uncertainty, and reduced confidence. The forecast also factors in weakening commodity demand triggered by these global shocks.
The report states that a stable global economy, easing inflation, and fewer conflicts could support the region’s growth targets. Growth is expected to benefit from gradually falling interest rates, which may boost consumption and investment. However, high public debt levels and borrowing costs require continued fiscal discipline, constraining domestic demand.
Public finances are expected to improve, with the region nearing a balanced primary budget deficit in 2024, aided by strict fiscal management and deficit reductions in less resource-dependent economies.
Risks to the outlook remain significant. These include potential shifts in trade policies, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China, escalating geopolitical tensions, domestic political instability, and ongoing violent conflicts. The conflict in Sudan could further raise food prices in parts of the region.
“Despite weakening growth among emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) globally, SSA is one of two regions expected to see growth acceleration in the forecast period,” the Bank noted.
External tensions, such as the war in Ukraine and the U.S.-China rivalry, continue to disrupt global trade and supply chains. The suspension of international aid has also affected several countries and institutions in the region.
The World Bank’s revised forecast is broadly aligned with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which recently set sub-Saharan Africa’s growth at 3.8% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026.
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