By 
The Bulls and Sharks can still eye a spot in the top four which will earn them the right to host a semifinal should they go that deep.
Log leaders Leinster, however, will take some catching. They are the runaway log leaders with an 11-point lead over Glasgow Warriors in second place. Should they beat Ulster in Dublin on April 19 they would have completed a clean sweep in the Irish Shield and be well on their way to finishing top.
If they are going to be knocked out of their stride it will most likely have to happen on their trip to SA in March. The Bulls will be hosting Leinster on March 22 and a week later they clash with the Sharks in Durban.
The Six Nations concludes a week before their clash against the Bulls and though there may be mandatory rest for some of their Test stars, some may be available for the match at Kings Park.
The Bulls are third, seven points behind second-placed Glasgow Warriors but with two games in hand. Their campaign may be defined by how they perform in their home derby matches over the next month or so.
They may have to shuffle their playing resources. Injuries to flyhalf Johan Goosen, tough as teak flanker Elrigh Louw and line-out linchpin Ruan Nortjé could further stretch their resources.
Their vast experience will be missed though it is unclear if Goosen and Nortjé will be available for their home derby matches against the Sharks and Stormers. Louw, who has had surgery to his left knee, is set for an extended period on the sidelines.
The Bulls also have a tough tour to negotiate. They still have to go to Munster and a week later they play in Glasgow.
A point behind the Bulls but having played one game more, the Sharks also have an injury list that is hard to ignore as they prepare for the derbies.
They should have second row talisman Eben Etzebeth back from concussion and injury, while the cloud of inactivity should also lift over Aphelele Fasi (ankle) and lock Emile van Heerden. Blockbusting centre André Esterhuizen (knee) is out for three months and will not be available for the trips to the highveld to face the Bulls and Lions.
Two wins for the Sharks at altitude will certainly tighten the scrap for honours in the SA Shield. The Stormers, despite their lowly 12th spot on the points table, lead the way in that department having thus far won two of their three derby matches.
The Sharks have a similar return but the Stormers have a higher bonus point tally.
The Stormers, having been eliminated from the Champions Cup and missing the boat on the Challenge Cup, can put all their eggs in the URC basket.
If they are to put themselves back into top eight contention they will need to start their rearguard action against the Lions at Ellis Park on February 15.
They then travel to Loftus Versfeld at the end of February in another match of must-win proportion. They travel to Scarlets and Ulster thereafter with two wins non-negotiable if they were to slip up on the highveld.
They will then have the opportunity to make a final push for a place in the knockout stages with consecutive home matches against Connacht, Benetton, Dragons and Cardiff.
They will have to win seven of their nine remaining matches and earn a few bonus points along the way to get into the top eight.
The Lions know a thing or two about those tight top eight margins having amassed 50 log points in 2024 but missing out against the Ospreys by virtue of winning one match fewer.
The Lions are more or less in the same boat as the Stormers, though they probably need to win eight of their remaining 10 matches to reach the URC’s knockout stages for the first time. They can get away with seven wins but to better the 50-point threshold, which proved insufficient in 2024, they will need three or more bonus points to get the job done.
Defeat in their derbies against their coastal rivals in their next two URC matches will effectively put paid to the Lions’ campaign. They have a home run at the end of the league stages similar to that of the Stormers but by then the sins from earlier in their campaign may well have caught up with the Lions.
Comments